Official Luthiers Forum!

"It's super weird how this has been politicized. A friend on facebook started his 10 point diatribe with "To be clear, I don't believe the virus is a hoax, but.... That's crazy! How the heck did we get here?"

That one's easy. We followed nature..... human nature to be more precise.

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Joe Beaver
Maker of Sawdust

Too much CNN, not enough reality.

I hope you guys are right.

Of course the right masks work. If they didn't CDC, would not use them. As do googles.

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Michael F Smith
Goat Rock Ukulele
http://goatrockukulele.com

Good lord. Went to the Walmart tonight for a few things - bananas, yogurt, chopped salad, vitamins, etc. Dad and I like fresh stuff. Could not believe it was happening here....

There was a gaping hole on the shelves where the ramen noodles used to be. At checkout, people had half their carts full of Hot Pockets and Gatorade. Many Hispanics had carts full of white flour and corn meal sacks, and huge bags of jalapenos. I meant to go back and check to see if there was still toilet paper.

When I got home I called a client who is the produce manager at a big Kroger-owned grocery on the east side of town.... He said they'd been out of toilet paper every day for a week, and when it comes in - it's gone in a flash.

Stoopid has come to the heartland.

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"Act your age, not your shoe size" - Prince

I may be "stoopid" but at least I have enough toilet paper to wipe my butt for the next three months

On a serious note there are now over 1,000 Americans infected, 31 have died.... and the US government is telling us that it will be getting worse.

Here is wishing the best of luck and health to all my OLF friends and will someone get our friend Chris some toilet paper so he doesn't start to stink? Kidding of course.

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Ann Arbor Guitars

People are definitely out of control but if they had this kind of media coverage in 1918 then maybe around 50 Million people would have been saved. So you can be all smug and high and mighty once this is over and say things like people are stupid but then you would never know. Think about it.

The other thing is that it's always a good idea to be prepped. Of course not at the onset of emergency but maybe some people will learn something about this when it blows over.

Shouldn't that be gone in a flush.

In Australia much of it didn't make it that far. Some Twitter troll started a rumor that toilet paper was infected with coronavirus and to burn it. Many hoarders did just that - bales of the stuff. So, yes - STOOPID.

Where are the world leaders standing in front of cameras screaming, "WTF is wrong with you people? Stop panic buying all this crap, and use your brain. Do what the medical pros recommend and we'll get through this!".

But they're not.

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"Act your age, not your shoe size" - Prince

I would like to see a cdc or some other reliable source publish something about recovery. We see how many are sick or have been affected, but are they all still sick? It would be helpful for the populous to have a number stating that x# has been released with a clear bill of health.
Or
Is that not possible because things are so novel and no fill recoveries have been made?


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Well here’s an example of what I was talking about, so I guess it is out there

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... cna1148126


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The media lives by this mantra.... IF IT BLEEDS, IT LEADS.

Bad news means ratings. Normal, healthy situations do not. They think happy news is about the kitty who was pulled out of a hole in the wall.

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"Act your age, not your shoe size" - Prince

All of the Health sites are pushing recovery numbers. While it is true almost everyone will recover the number of dead may be much higher than flu. The group of people dying are parents and grandparents, that in itself causes stress among the age and health groups that should be OK. In one senior home in our area a sizable percentage of the clients died in this epidemic. On the bright side I suspect that the numbers are skewed as only the sick that seek medical attention are being tested. Most of the people infected are probably not seeking medical attention.

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http://www.Harvestmoonguitars.com

I just want to know why toilet paper is the hot commode-ity.

Me too. The sanitizer I understand but the TP????

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Steve Smith
"Music is what feelings sound like"

There was a story the Chinese ran out. It does not take much to start a run.

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http://www.Harvestmoonguitars.com

As of this morning, all public gatherings with more than 250 people are now banned in three counties here through March and that will probably be extended through April. It doesn't include the public schools yet, but does include sports, concerts, conventions, religious gatherings, fund raisers, etc. That takes two concerts my wife and I were going to off our calendar. Events smaller than 250 people are also banned unless they meet specific health requirements.

The best argument I've seen for measures like these is to slow the progression of the spread of the virus so as to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed which would mean that people who are in serious need of health care (not just due to the virus) can't get it.

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Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right - Robert Hunter

And this is an excellent point. Thanks John.

Snow CNN has been running an interview all day with a man who is still sick and in hospital who has it. He's been sick for weeks, he looks terrible, he had or has pneumonia the viral type in both lungs. He says he's recovering but it's been a nightmare for him and he's also had to have the tube down his throat and be on a ventilator. He said that his wife and daughter are being discriminated against because he was sick.... Anyway I've been wanting to know what recovery looks like too and from the looks of this guy it's pretty terrible

Some things to know and this information is from the CDC. Three group's. 80% will have mild symptoms and recover. Recovery takes 2 - 3 weeks..... and these are generally younger healthier folks. In the best of circumstances being quarantined for 2 - 3 weeks is not easy...

Group two is 15% of the population who will get very sick and may be hospitalized.... They will make it but only after weeks.... in the hospital and recovery is a 4 - 6 week thing. Kiss several months of your lives good bye and this is one out of five of us.....

That last group are 60 or over and in the 5%. Folks in this group will die and only half of them will make it. Any complications from diabetes, heart disease, COPD... and other chronic conditions will combine with the virus and may kill you. The average age of folks who are dying of this is 80 and 80 or above years olds have a 1 in 6 chance of dying from the virus.

As John indicated the 2 - 3 percent mortality rate is likely lower but since folks who have minimal symptoms are not reporting OR being tested we can't know how much lower. The inability to get tested is still a massive problem....

Dr. Gupta of CNN who I completely trust says this virus is 20 - 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu....

It's a big deal and folks can stick their heads in the sand if you wish just don't not do your civic duty and risk making others sick. The elderly are in the most peril and IIRC some of you here are not spring chickens nor am I...

I'll add that many of us have a long history of woodworking and may have compromised lungs from inhaling wood dust. I'm remembering our friend Hanns.... and I have COPD too. COPD and the virus don't mix and if over 60 it could be deadly....

So this is a big deal and it directly has an impact on working in the trade luthiers because we handle the instruments that someone who may be infected just handled and picked their nose or what ever and can infect us.

It's not about the media or politicians this is a genuine public health crisis and an all out Pandemic now. Ann Arbor where our shop is now has it's first case this morning.

I'll add that the world is going to change now for while because of this thing. Many things that you used to be able to do and places that you used to be able to go will not be as welcoming or available anymore.

I'm prepared, our business is prepared, the streets here are far less trafficked, people are being sent home from businesses. Michigan State University just cancelled all classes for the rest of the semester and U of M is sure to follow.

I posted this here because some of my friends here are at risk because of their/our age and preexisting conditions. If my post helps one person avoid the infection I'm glad that I made it.

Please be safe folks I don't want to lose any you.

Take care.

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Ann Arbor Guitars

This guy is where I live btw


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At this point in time people in the high risk group have more to worry about the Flu than they do the corona virus. Influenza has killed more than 8000 people in the U.S. during the 2019-2020 flu season
Will the corona virus become as common as the flu virus and 30 times more deadly? It's possible. Many of the things being done to prevent it's spread may also reduce deaths from influenza, which would not be a bad thing.

The students in my college town are all on spring break so everyone here is wondering what they might bring back. I might just close the repair shop for a bit. I've got too much work atm anyway.

Also one of our local elementary school principals has tested positive .
Say what you will but the chances of getting this thing are starting to look high.
How you will deal with it will rely on other factors as has already been stated


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Yes, all of the folks who think this is overblown are encouraged to rant about that on your computers, from home, and physically stay away from me and mine. That would be great. Thanks.

We are ready to close but we also thought that this might be a good time to encourage the big arse, drawn out jobs such as neck resets and full on restorations. We typically don't have time for these but the advantage is that we would have far fewer clients to deal with and we can work when we are closed and the doors are locked.

Thought that I would suggest this to you in an effort to help you get though this without as much impact on your income.

We don't want to close but if this thing gets out of control we are ready to pack it in for a while.

I placed a sign on the door this morning "If You are Sick DO NOT ENTER and instead call us at....."

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Ann Arbor Guitars

Right you are the chances may be far higher than we even know. We do not have the ability to test everyone that would be prudent to test.

In Michigan and I heard it's the same in other states too if you want to be tested you have to ask a Doc to sponsor you for testing. He/She has to make the request from the country health department who in turn makes the request to the State Department of Health.... Lots of red tape.

So as John indicated without testing we can't know how many people even already have it.

I agree with you my friend that the chances of this getting out of control and some of us catching it may not be good.

Be safe and thanks.

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Ann Arbor Guitars